Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.961276 1.121142 1.298948 1.511330 1.758107 2.035828 2.372159
2025-01-05 0.675990 0.880502 1.133634 1.469837 1.904694 2.448364 3.180254
2025-01-12 0.519656 0.731677 1.014611 1.419517 1.984178 2.744133 3.845885
2025-01-19 0.418171 0.627382 0.924214 1.375628 2.044877 3.001146 4.473461
2025-01-26 0.362834 0.575060 0.892532 1.401335 2.196533 3.392848 5.332632
2025-02-02 0.335155 0.557823 0.906990 1.493352 2.453803 3.966437 6.534597
2025-02-09 0.302953 0.527328 0.894682 1.538526 2.639357 4.447121 7.648019
2025-02-16 0.271826 0.493237 0.870534 1.558541 2.782580 4.872013 8.718299
2025-02-23 0.242505 0.457513 0.837886 1.557717 2.886881 5.239351 9.730038
2025-03-02 0.215754 0.422317 0.800912 1.542938 2.962021 5.560824 10.694630
2025-03-09 0.194953 0.395170 0.774655 1.543550 3.063717 5.939026 11.806213
2025-03-16 0.170703 0.357829 0.724119 1.490334 3.054300 6.105512 12.528192
2025-03-23 0.165538 0.358758 0.749258 1.592368 3.368547 6.941702 14.698111
2025-03-30 0.146062 0.327250 0.705288 1.547641 3.378994 7.177383 15.679225
2025-04-06 0.128503 0.297294 0.660457 1.494652 3.364142 7.357356 16.562840
2025-04-13 0.113819 0.271602 0.621295 1.448458 3.357212 7.551446 17.498989
2025-04-20 0.106393 0.261511 0.615177 1.475516 3.517057 8.126022 19.357611
2025-04-27 0.104423 0.264045 0.637985 1.572361 3.849606 9.125267 22.318928
2025-05-04 0.099255 0.258044 0.640032 1.619904 4.071246 9.895528 24.834793
2025-05-11 0.092944 0.248276 0.631755 1.640969 4.230881 10.537825 27.119409
2025-05-18 0.086041 0.235994 0.615660 1.640101 4.335175 11.057494 29.161035
2025-05-25 0.079067 0.222552 0.594930 1.624548 4.399800 11.486262 31.023946
2025-06-01 0.073529 0.212247 0.581017 1.625192 4.506942 12.034963 33.269405